Efficient Lighting Savings Forecasting Model

This model is an open-source tool meant to help users model the potential savings that a country could realize by a rapid transition to energy efficient lighting.

The spreadsheet forecasts the electrical energy and carbon dioxide emission savings potential of efficient lighting regulations relative to a business-as-usual scenario. The model baseline is the estimated 2010 installed stock and energy consumption from the en.lighten Country Lighting Assessments.

The user selects energy efficient regulatory options for the various lighting technologies specifying the month and year they would take effect. In the more advanced settings, users can adjust (1) the trends in efficacy for the various technologies and (2) the proportions of technologies substituting the baseline technologies in the model. Adjusting these technology proportions can be very important - for example, if a phase-out of incandescent lighting were to be scheduled for 2013, it might have a higher proportion of CFLs than LED replacement lamps.

However, if the phase-out were starting in 2016, the user may wish to adjust the default settings in that scenario to reflect a higher proportion of LED lamps.

For questions and technical assistance regarding this modeling tool, please contact enlighten@unep.org

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